Intro
The 32-24 Cardinals continue (and finish) the road trip at Texas. The series starts after a day off following a series win over the Orioles. The Cardinals are looking for a strong finish to the month of May, having gone 18-7 so far.
The 27-30 Rangers are continuing a homestand that started with generously hosting the Blue Jays, who took 2 of 3. They are currently in fourth place in the AL West Division and generally heading the wrong way, having lost 8 out of their last 10 and having been shut out 7 times so far this year. Cardinal fans feel their pain. Injuries and age appear to be catching up with them, but they should not be taken lightly.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
The starter projections are what I have inferred after research. On MLB.com, the Rangers list Mahle as their probable for Friday, even though he started on Wednesday, so that is clearly wrong. They show TBD for Saturday and Sunday. Sometimes this is gamesmanship, sometimes it is just they have no clue what they are going to do. The Rangers season has gone off the track in the last 10 days, so I suspect more of the latter.
Friday – Liberatore vs Leiter @ 7:05p (all times Central)
Saturday – Gray vs Corbin @ 3:05p
Sunday – Fedde vs DeGrom @ 12:05p
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
Overall, the Rangers pitching has been the strong suit of this team. They are 7th in MLB in team ERA and their FIP is not far off, so they aren’t over-performing as a group.
On Friday, 25-year-old right hander Jack Leiter probably takes the mound. He is pretty inconsistent, showing a 17.7% K rate and a 12% walk rate. That low K rate and the poor K-BB ratio will generally not lead to great results. He is a former 1st round draft pick just 4 years removed from Vanderbilt. So, generally, a prospect who has yet to gain traction. I note the walk rate has been a persistent problem since his professional debut.
On Saturday, 35-year-old LHP Patrick Corbin probably gets the call. He holds down a 3.75 ERA, but that is coupled with a 5.00 FIP, so suspect some luck is involved. We’ve seen enough of him over the last few years to understand what he is.
On Sunday, the Rangers will almost assuredly feature 36-year-old right-hander Jacob DeGrom. He is still pitching well. 27.4% K rate, 5.4% walk rate. He promises to be a handful, as usual. I would note that 27.4% K rate is a decline from his career norms and he notoriously failed to record a single K in his last start. So, not the dominant starter he once was, but still very good. Same with the walk rate. A good rate, it is worse than prior years. He is in the 3rd year of a 5-year contract that pays him $40m this year. Health is his big concern; the arm still plays.
Martin, Milner and Garcia form a pretty solid back-end trio, although Martin is on the IL now.
Overall, they rank 6th overall with 13 OAA, so they are good defensively and they are 7th in overall run prevention, just ahead of the Cardinals.
A peak at the offense
Whereas the Rangers pitching is a strength, their offense is not. They rank 24th in the MLB in wRC+, Seager, Langford and Smith are their best hitters. Seager is just back off the IL. Everyone else is replacement level (or worse). Their baseruns rank them 8th in the MLB, so not bad.
Texas lags the Cardinals by ~80 runs or about 1.5 runs per game. That is how difficult it has been for them this year. They look a lot like how the Cardinals looked last year. Some of their big guns are aging out or just regressing (Garcia, Semien, Pederson).
About the venue
Globe Life Field plays pretty neutral, with a park factor of 99. It gooses home runs (+10%) and suppresses triples, but otherwise it is vanilla.
Overall
Good pitching, good defense and good baserunning indicates a fundamentally sound club that struggles to score. Keep their offense down, you have a good chance of winning, although low scoring games seem to be their specialty.
Cardinal updates
The Cardinals have a well-timed day-off between the Baltimore and Texas series’. They can reset their bullpen and dry everything out after a rain-soaked series finale.
Contreras is slumping again, but boy is Winn ever hot. After a tough, tough start he is now cruising along at a wRC+ of 116. Not bad for an elite defensive shortstop. Herrera had a mostly quiet series at Baltimore (at one point he was 1-10), but really, that. 589 SLG wasn’t going to last.
Phil Maton seems to have found his misplaced curveball. It is a good one. He threw 4 in the last Baltimore game. Got 3 swing and miss outcomes and a ground out. Lethal pitch.
Drew Rom, Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence are all pitching again, so brighter days appear on the horizon for the Cardinals minor league starting depth.
