The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-36) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (27-27) play the second game of a 3-game set Tuesday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 1-0
The Diamondbacks routed the Pirates 5-0 as -187 home favorites in the Monday opener with the Under (9) hitting — and we cashed on the side and the total. 3B Eugenio Suárez and 1B Josh Naylor homered in the third and fifth innings, respectively, as Arizona snapped its 5-game losing streak.
The Pirates have dropped 2 straight after winning 4 of 5 from May 20-24. Pittsburgh has been shut out an MLB-high 9 times this season and has scored 4 or fewer runs in 28 of its last 31 games.
Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Mike Burrows vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Burrows (0-1, 7.20 ERA) makes his second start. The rookie allowed 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 3 K’s in 5 innings in his season debut, an 8-5 home loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday.
- 2024 stats: 1 relief appearance (Sept. 9), win, 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 9-4 victory at New York Yankees
- 2025 stats with Triple-A Indianapolis: 2-1, 2.51 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
Burnes (3-2, 2.73 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 52 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-1 defeat at LA Dodgers Wednesday
- 2025 home stats: 2-0, 1.48 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 14 H, 10 BB, 26 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 7-2, 3.53 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 11 starts and 12 relief appearances — last faced them in 2023
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Pirates at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:36 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Diamondbacks -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Pirates 2
The Diamondbacks (-250) appear to have righted the ship after a 5-game skid from May 20-25, but the preferred play is backing them on the run line to win by 2 or more runs.
PASS on the ML.
Two of Burnes’ last 3 starts have resulted in wins by 3 or more runs for the Diamondbacks, with the lone exception a solid showing in a +133 underdog loss at the Dodgers Wednesday.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, fell by 3 runs in Burrows’ first MLB start Thursday.
Look for Arizona to keep rolling against the struggling Pirates Tuesday after snapping its losing streak in the series opener.
BET DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (-125).
The Under has hit in each of Burnes’ last 4 starts, and the 4-time All-Star has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his 9 outings this season. The Pirates, meanwhile, rank last in MLB with just 2.98 runs per game and are 16-5-1 to the Under (76.2%) over their last 22 games.
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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