On May 22, 2025, the European Commission published on its Green Forum platform the long-awaited country risk classifications and benchmarking system under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), marking a pivotal step in the regulation’s rollout.
The new list introduces a tiered system—low, standard, and high risk—that directly affects the compliance burden for exporters of coffee and six other regulated commodities. Low-risk countries are subject to simplified due diligence—basic information gathering without mandatory risk assessment or mitigation—while EU Member States will inspect only 1% of operations. Standard and high-risk countries must comply with full due diligence, including geolocation, legality verification, and risk mitigation, with inspection rates of 3% and 9%, respectively.
The classification is said to be based on the risk that the production of these commodities contributes to deforestation or forest degradation, using the latest data from the FAO’s Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA dataset).
However, a closer look raises concerns. The European Commission designated only four countries—Belarus, Myanmar, North Korea, and Russia—as high risk. Environmental groups have criticized the decision, arguing it overlooks major deforestation hotspots. For instance, Earthsight pointed out that these four countries account for just 0.07% of EU imports of relevant commodities, casting doubt on the classification’s effectiveness.
According to Reuters, “Countries including Brazil and Indonesia, which have historically had among the world’s highest rates of deforestation, will be labeled as ‘standard risk’—which means they will face lighter compliance checks on goods exported to Europe.”
In Asia, low-risk coffee-producing countries include Laos, India, and Vietnam, which together accounted for 28.7% of European green coffee imports, according to the European Coffee Report 2023/2024. In Africa, Rwanda, Kenya, and Burundi are also classified as low-risk, contributing a combined 1.6% market share. In Oceania and Central America, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica hold low-risk status, representing 0.3% and 0.5% market share, respectively.
The EUDR’s country risk classification is already reshaping how EU buyers select suppliers. Countries rated as low risk face lighter compliance requirements, making them more attractive to importers seeking to reduce regulatory costs and audit exposure. This shift is already visible. The Sustainable Trade Initiative (IDH) policy paper “EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products” notes increasing pressure on exporters from standard and high-risk countries to prove their products are deforestation-free.
For Asian exporters, the shift is especially tangible: buyers now demand traceability and documentation even before contracts are signed. While the Commission claims the system is designed to “streamline compliance where warranted,” it also introduces new competition based on environmental performance.
As the EUDR continues to influence global trade dynamics, it is imperative for professionals across the supply chain to stay informed and proactive. Building robust traceability systems, collaborating with technical partners, and advocating for inclusive implementation are essential steps to ensure compliance and maintain competitiveness.
By working together, stakeholders can transform regulatory challenges into opportunities for sustainable growth and equitable development.
