Do Stuart Skinner’s Stanley Cup struggles raise Thatcher Demko’s value?

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In trying to understand the state of the NHL goalie market in the context of the ongoing Stanley Cup Final, you can absolutely look at the performance of Stuart Skinner.

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The Edmonton Oilers’ main goalie has had a rough last two games. His team now trails the best-of-seven series 2-1 to the Florida Panthers.

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The Oilers’ struggles the past two games are not all on Skinner, but you’re not alone if you’ve thought, “Man, the Oilers sure could have used a few big saves tonight.”

Of course, Skinner hasn’t exactly had a lot of help. According to Clear Sight Analytics, the Panthers have generated 27 high-danger chances through just three games — the Oilers gave up just 28 in the whole of the Dallas series last round, 32 across the five games of the Vegas series.

That’s a lot. If you’re going to stick with below-average goaltending, you’ve got to defend in front better

The Oilers have made a choice over the years to not chase after a high-profile netminder. They have stuck it out the past two seasons, paying a combined $3.5 million to Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard, basically a third of what the Panthers pay to just their undisputed No. 1 goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.

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It will be interesting to see what Florida GM Bill Zito does this summer. Bobrovsky’s big contract comes to an end, and it wasn’t a deal signed by Zito, rather by his predecessor Dale Tallon (who is now a Canucks senior adviser, for the record).

You can look at the choice the Oilers have made with their goalies and note two things: First, that they’ve made two Stanley Cup Finals back-to-back with this tandem, so maybe goalies are an area you should hold your salary cap line on. But second, that maybe they should have found themselves a goalie that costs a little more?

If they do go hunting for an upgrade, even a small one, will that happen this summer? There isn’t exactly a surge of goalies coming available in free agency soon — but there could be a number of names available in the summer of 2026. And there are lessons here for the Canucks.

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“Why pay premium in the summer when you can shop before the (2026) deadline with a list that currently could include Demko, Markstrom, Bob, Gustavsson, Stolarz, Nedeljkovic, Brossoit, Andersen, Talbot and Ingram,” posits InGoal Magazine’s Kevin Woodley. “Sure, some will re-up, but that’s a pretty good list to choose from ranging from great 1B to legit No. 1 starters.”

Demko being in the list is a reminder of how the Canucks may have to make some choices in goal themselves: they’ve got Kevin Lankinen under contract, so half their tandem is clearly settled. But what’s the thinking on Demko, who for all intents and purposes remains No. 1 on their depth chart, though he’s coming off yet another injury-plagued season.

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In the moment, with the Canucks dreaming of becoming not just a playoff team again but a cup contender — with Quinn Hughes’ future up in the air, how could they not push their chips in now? — you’d expect they’d want to hang on to Demko. When he’s at his best, he’s one of the NHL’s best. But do the Canucks believe they can get his best? Or is he better suited to be a trade chip, especially when there aren’t a ton of goalie options for other teams to choose from this summer? Of course, it’s hard to fathom the Canucks trading Demko, even with his durability question marks, to a division rival.

But what about other suitors, like say Utah? Or maybe just holding on to him altogether is the play: if he does recover his health, his form won’t be far behind and if you get a big performance out of him you’re going places. And if the task is to be a cup contender next year …

But also: can you be a cup contender without a proper No. 2 centre? Can you find a No. 2 centre without including Demko in such a package?

Having competent goaltending matters. How much it matters remains a question. But there’s plenty of time to dig further into that.

pjohnston@postmedia.com

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