Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Tuesday, April 29th

The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.

We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!

With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Monday, April 28th and Tuesday, April 29th.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

NOTE: Due to power outages in Spain, most of Monday’s matches were moved to Tuesday. That said, I added one new pick to my Monday article and changed the title. Outside of the Gauff/Keys parlay, everything in here is still playable.

Belinda Bencic vs. Coco Gauff
Donna Vekic vs. Madison Keys

It’s not often that I actually back Gauff. I did ride the wave during her heater to end the 2024 season. When she’s serving well and hitting her forehand with conviction, she’s pretty close to unbeatable. However, we haven’t seen that version of Gauff in a long time. At the moment, her forehand is leaky and her double fault numbers are high. Despite that, I do think Gauff will take care of business against Bencic in Madrid. I know we saw Gauff lose to Bencic in Indian Wells this year, but that was a completely different setting. Bencic is a much better hard-court player than she is a clay-court player, as she doesn’t move quite as well on the dirt. And the small difference in level between the two surfaces could make all the difference in the world here. Gauff is just such a good defender along the baseline, so she’s going to ask a ton of questions of Bencic’s mobility. And Gauff has looked dialed in as a server in Madrid thus far. If you throw out her first set of the tournament — when she was bageled by Dayana Yastremska — the last four sets have been really strong. And for as much as I have enjoyed backing Bencic this year, I’m not sure her best tennis is good enough for Gauff’s B-game.

To get a better price on Gauff, I’m pairing her moneyline with Keys’ moneyline. I actually had Vekic to cover the game spread against Emma Navarro on Saturday, so I don’t have many bad things to say about her. But I will note that it was really more of a Navarro fade than a play on Vekic. And realistically, as long as Keys isn’t spraying unforced errors, she should win this match. Keys’ serve is just such a weapon on all surfaces, and the conditions in Madrid bring out the best in her baseline ability. Her power is still a huge asset, but she has a little more time to track shots down. All of that will be hard for Vekic to deal with.

PARLAY: Gauff ML & Keys ML (-105 – 1.5 units)

Gabriel Diallo vs. Cameron Norrie
Alexandre Muller vs. Frances Tiafoe

This parlay calls for Diallo to win a set against Norrie, plus Tiafoe to win a set against Muller. In the first match, I’m a little nervous about Diallo’s mediocre net game and overall lack of previous clay-court success. But in the end, this is a very good server going against a shaky one. Norrie is still a player that is fun to watch, as he’s one of the toughest competitors in the sport. But his hold percentage is down at 76.1% in 2025. It was up in the 80s when he was a mainstay in the Top 30 in the ATP rankings. Norrie has also dropped off a little as a returner. So, when he plays against guys that can hold easily, he’s extremely vulnerable. That said, I’m not sure Diallo will win this outright, but I do think he’ll at least force a decider.

With the second match, I’m putting some trust in Tiafoe to avoid a straight-set loss, which isn’t asking a lot considering it’s a match he can win. Tiafoe beat Muller 6-4, 6-2 when the two met in Acapulco earlier in the year. Now, that result should be taken with a grain of salt, as Muller was coming off a grueling week. But I’m just not sure Muller can win this match in straights. Tiafoe is a better server and has more firepower from the baseline. He has also looked extremely motivated on the European clay this year. And when Tiafoe is motivated, he’s a top-15 player.

PARLAY: Diallo +1.5 Sets & Tiafoe +1.5 Sets (-123 – 1.5 units)

Diana Shnaider vs. Iga Swiatek

Swiatek’s 2025 campaign would look incredible for most players, but her 22–7 record so far marks a step down from her dominant previous seasons, when she routinely won over 85% of her matches and collected multiple trophies. The aura of invincibility around her has faded, and powerful baseliners — especially in quicker conditions — have started to trouble her. With clay season underway, there’s hope she’ll turn things around, but winning back-to-back titles in Madrid could prove tricky. Shnaider, despite her own slow start to 2025, has found her groove in Madrid and has the aggressive game reminiscent of Jelena Ostapenko — one of the few players who consistently disrupts Swiatek’s rhythm.

Shnaider’s ability to take the ball early and go for winners could force Swiatek out of her comfort zone, especially with Madrid’s altitude. While Swiatek’s defensive skills and experience should see her through, the 5.5-game handicap feels generous given the matchup. Even if Swiatek wins in straight sets, Shnaider’s firepower might keep things close. And if the southpaw snatches a set, covering that spread becomes even more likely. This is arguably the best clay-court event for opponents to challenge Swiatek, and Shnaider has the tools to make her sweat.

Pick: Shnaider +5.5 Games (-112)

Taylor Fritz vs. Casper Ruud

Ruud’s clay-court credentials are well established, but the unique conditions in Madrid — where altitude makes play faster — have limited his success at the Mutua Madrid Open. While Ruud is a two-time French Open finalist and thrives on traditional, slower clay, Madrid rewards powerful serving and aggressive baseline play. That’s why I like Fritz in this Round of 16 matchup, especially at plus-money odds. Fritz has shown he can beat Ruud in quicker conditions, as seen at last year’s US Open, and Madrid’s courts should suit his big serve and flatter ground strokes. Ruud’s win over Fritz at the French Open was hard-fought, but those were conditions that favored the Norwegian.

Fritz’s serve has been a major weapon, with a 90.1% hold rate over the last year, second only to Jannik Sinner, and still an impressive 86.4% on clay — both better than Ruud’s marks. Fritz’s ability to use his length to get returns back in play should serve him well in this match. Also, Ruud’s discomfort with drop shots is something to keep an eye on. He is sometimes unwilling to hit those shots, but that’s a way to exploit Fritz’s mediocre transition game. Also, Ruud’s straight-set loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime in Madrid last year is something that should make Fritz confident. Fritz can do a lot of what Auger-Aliassime can, but the American is just better at most of it.

Pick: Fritz ML (+115 – 1.5 units)

Additional Plays

I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.

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