If you had told me in 2018 that an upstart YouTuber named Jake Paul would still be boxing in 2025, I wouldn’t have believed you.
If you had told me he would end up picking a fight with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., I might have believed that.
It’s obvious why Paul wanted this fight. He sees it as a surmountable challenge, and one that he can peddle as a valid accomplishment once he’s surmounted it. It won’t work, but the logic tracks.
The Mexican is notoriously unreliable in the ring, as evidenced by his 2021 loss to fading UFC legend Anderson Silva. He’s also over a decade older than Paul, at 39. At the same time, he is very experienced, with over 60 fights to his credit.
To Paul, this is a low-risk, high-reward fight.
I believe Paul has miscalculated twice over, though. His first mistake is assuming beating Chavez in 2025 will do anything to strengthen his credibility as a boxer. It won’t, no matter how hard he tries to twist the facts if he wins.
His second and larger mistake is betting he can beat his more experienced opponent.
At this point, it’s obvious there’s a level of fighter Paul can beat and a level of fighter he can’t beat, and it seems to come down to his opponent’s experience.
When Paul fights a rookie boxer like Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley or Mike Perry, he can win. When he fights somebody with a modicum of experience, like Tommy Fury, he runs into trouble. Granted, he beat Ryan Bourland in 2024, but Bourland was never a high-level boxer and had barely fought in years, so the point stands.
It’s a somewhat bold pick, but I think Chavez—perhaps recognizing the value of beating up a controversial celebrity like Paul—will actually lean on his experience and try hard win this fight. If he does, I think he will, probably on points.
Prediction: Chavez Jr. by unanimous decision
