Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu hit 15 home runs in 132 games last season, but he is just two shy of matching that total already this season. Abreu homered for the 13th time in 2025 on Wednesday, giving him four long balls in his last 19 games. He will try to add to that total when he faces the Braves during the Friday MLB schedule. The latest MLB home run odds list Abreu at +430 to go yard, and you can also build in MLB HR bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code. Our model loves Abreu to continue his torrid pace and go yard at over 4-1 odds.
Every team in the majors is in action on Friday, so there are plenty of home run props to evaluate. Any first-time users interested in putting together MLB home run picks today can also enhance their experience with the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, just to name a few. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 24.35 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 52 days after hitting two home run bets on Thursday. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and you can also see Friday MLB player props here.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, May 30:
Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+390)
Ozuna has homered three times in the last two weeks, giving him nine total homers this season. He is batting .286 against right-handed pitchers, with eight of his home runs coming against righties. The 34-year-old has also been hitting better at home (.318) than on the road (.242). Ozuna has already homered against Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito once in his career.
“Red Sox SP Lucas Giolito is coming off a strong start, but he allowed 3 HRs the previous start,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Giolito led all pitchers in 2023 with 41 home runs allowed before missing 2024 with TJ surgery.” Ozuna’s best price is at bet365, and you can check out the latest bet365 bonus code here:
Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+430 originally, now +350)
Abreu leads Boston’s dangerous lineup with 13 homers through 55 games, with all 13 of them coming against right-handed pitchers. He has been much better on the road than at home, and his matchup against Atlanta on Friday checks both of those boxes. Seven of his 20 hits in May have been homers, so he is a power hitter available at a strong price.
“Grant Holmes has pitched well this season for the Braves, but he has allowed 10 HRs this season, so he is somewhat prone to giving up the long ball,” Fetner said. “With hitter friendly weather expected in Atlanta, we set the line at +360 for Abreu to homer.” Fanatics has the best line at +430, but the +375 price at bet365 will be used for the parlay.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+480 originally, now +425)
Marte is still overshadowed by teammates Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez, who are among the league’s leaders in home runs. However, Marte has only played in 30 games due to injury, and he has already hit eight homers. He went yard in back-to-back starts last week against the Cardinals and Dodgers. Marte is 4-of-9 with a homer against Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin, who has allowed seven homers to left-handed batters this season.
“Marte is hitting .309 with 7 out of 8 of his HRs hit this season coming as a left-handed batter vs. right-handed pitching,” Fetner said.
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:
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BetMGM |
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No code required |
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DraftKings |
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No code required |
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Fanatics |
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No code required |
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bet365 promo code |
Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose |
CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 131-66 roll on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 33-25 (+1482) over his last 58 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in picks for Friday.
