The San Diego Padres (27-21) face the Atlanta Braves (24-25) in the opener of a 3-game set Friday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 4-0
The Friars have lost 6 in a row after they were swept by the Seattle Mariners at home from May 16-18 and during a 3-game set at the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this week. They were trounced 3-0 and 14-0 Tuesday and Wednesday before succumbing in 11 innings 7-6 Thursday. 1B Gavin Sheets hit 2 homers Thursday and drove in 5 runs. He’s hitting .286 with 8 homers and 28 RBIs on the year.
The Braves were swept in a 2-game series at the Washington Nationals. The finale was an 8-7 loss in 10 innings Thursday. 1B Matt Olson (11th) and DH Marcell Ozuna (ninth) each hit homers in the game and drove in 2.
Padres at Braves projected starters
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. LHP Chris Sale
Pivetta (5-2, 2.86 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 50 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-1 home loss to Seattle Mariners Saturday
- Last 5 starts vs. Atlanta: 2-3, 4.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 21 K’s in 28 IP
- March 30 vs. Atlanta: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-0 home victory
Sale (2-3, 3.62 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K at Boston Red Sox last Friday (May 16)
- Last 5 regular-season starts vs. SD: 4-0, 1.91 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 37 K’s in 33 IP
- March 27 vs. Padres: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-4 road defeat
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Padres at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:29 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-155) | Braves -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)
Padres at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Padres 3
I’m tempted to take the value on the Padres, but Atlanta is 15-7 at home, and the Friars are clearly struggling. Pivetta has been a surprise, and he has owned the Braves, throwing 14 consecutive scoreless frames in his last 2 starts against them.
I’m skipping the expensive Braves ML and going with something a little more fruitful. Take MARCELL OZUNA OVER 0.5 HOME RUNS (+290). He has 3 homers in his last 4 games. He’s 8-for-31 (.258) lifetime against Pivetta. So what, right? Well 6 of those 8 hits left the ballpark.
I’ll take the PADRES +1.5 (-155) here because I feel like the moneyline split should be about +100/-120 and not +150/-185. The Padres swept a 4-game series against them earlier this year and have won 7 of 8 meetings.
Give me the UNDER 7.5 (-102). Both teams have quality bullpens, and we have a couple of starters on the mound that are dealing. The Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings.
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