The lottery is hard to predict. After a 19-win season, the Charlotte Hornets have a 14% chance to win it and be able to pick Cooper Flagg, but they can also fall as far as seventh overall. Their highest odds are for the sixth pick.
In the very first Tankathon sim I ran, the Hornets ended up second in the lottery. It would be a little painstaking for them to move up from their record, but not high enough for Flagg. In two of four simulations, they ended up picking second. If they get to that point, would they have enough to move up for Flagg?
The lottery has never been too kind to Charlotte. They won seven games in 2011 and ended up with the second overall pick. They picked Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and didn’t get Anthony Davis, which has haunted them. Could they move up to ensure not missing the generational prospect this time?
It doesn’t seem very likely. In general, moving up to the first overall pick is costly. Just go across the street from the Spectrum Center and ask the Carolina Panthers about that. When there’s a generational player like Flagg, viewed as a surefire future All-NBA player, it only gets more costly. Even if it’s to move one spot, the Hornets would have to pay.
Yes, on paper, the Hornets have the pieces to make a move for the first pick. Convincing the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, or whoever wins the lottery to give up Flagg won’t be easy, but Charlotte could throw everything but the kitchen sink at them.
LaMelo Ball, Tidjane Salaun, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams are all players under 24 who could be enticing to a team picking first overall, so the conversation would presumably start with one or two of those players, probably including Salaun every time since he’s the youngest and the most expendable for Charlotte right now.
They’d have to throw in a boatload of picks, too. This year’s first, next year’s first, and maybe even the year after that’s first-round pick would probably be gone, as well as some second-round picks. Over the next three drafts, the Hornets own four first-round picks. Three of them would likely be gone.
They own 12 second-round picks through 2031, and a lot of those would be gone, too. Whatever team is giving up on Flagg would have to get back an absolute haul no matter what, so while the Hornets can, in theory, afford it, it would likely leave them with a totally barren roster and devoid of valuable picks to add to it in the next few years. So, in essence, no, they cannot afford to move up. Hopefully, for Jeff Peterson’s sake, the lottery gods don’t force that decision to be made.
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